The Whipsnakes’ current playoff odds after their loss to the Outlaws sit at 46.59%.
Maryland controls its own destiny, and if it can run the table and take home a win in each of its next four games to finish the season at 6-4, its playoff chances sit at a perfect 100% – no tiebreakers, and no help needed from any other team.
All the Whipsnakes need to do is finish third in the East, because if they remain in last place, they would miss the playoffs for the first time in club history. The cleanest way to do that would be to win all three remaining conference games, so that even with a loss to California, their odds would sit at 99.04%. But the Whips still have a shot at the postseason if they drop one or even two conference games.
Here’s what’s at stake each week:
vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs (July 19, Fairfield)
Previous matchup: Waterdogs 16, Whipsnakes 12
The Whipsnakes will replay their Eastern Conference matchups in the same order they started the season, beginning with the Waterdogs, who are slotted second in the East. If Maryland can knock off Philadelphia, its playoff odds would jump to 64.73%, making its path to the postseason much cleaner. However, a loss would drop its odds to 29.79% and would result in a 0-2 finish against the Waterdogs in the two-game season series.
Yet, if Philadelphia is Maryland’s only loss for the rest of the season, it is nearly certain the Whipsnakes would make the postseason, with odds of 96.62%. While Maryland could technically afford to lose to Philadelphia and finish the season at 5-5, any other loss, whether in conference or not, would drastically diminish its odds.
Even losses to the Redwoods, who aren’t fighting for a spot in the East, and the Waterdogs would drop the Whipsnakes’ playoff odds down to 60.96%, and those odds decrease further if you replace the loss to California with a loss to New York (50.68%) or Boston (23.13%).
vs. New York Atlas (July 25, Salt Lake City)
Previous matchup: Whipsnakes 16, Atlas 12
The battle against New York, which sits in first place in the East, will be the least salient remaining conference matchup for Maryland, simply because the Whipsnakes defeated the Atlas in Philadelphia earlier in the season.
But it still could have significant playoff implications. If the Whipsnakes’ only loss for the rest of the season is to the Atlas, then their odds would hover at 97.24%, but picking up a second loss, especially to Boston, would be detrimental.
Losses to New York and Philadelphia coupled with wins over California and Boston, would be the best-case scenario involving two conference losses, as it would leave the Whipsnakes’ odds at a coin flip of 50.68%.
vs. California Redwoods (Aug. 2, Denver)
No previous matchup.
While the Redwoods are hunting for a playoff bid in the West, they still have a chance to wreak havoc on the Whipsnakes’ season as they, too, are searching for a spot in the postseason. If Maryland’s only loss of the rest of the season comes against California, the Whipsnakes’ odds would only fall to 99.04%; they’d drop drastically with an additional loss to any of the three teams in the East.
vs. Boston Cannons (August 9, Boston)
Previous matchup: Cannons 13, Whipsnakes 12
Boston, which currently sits third in the East, looks like Maryland’s most crucial must-win game of the season. The Whipsnakes’ playoff odds would decrease the most with a loss to the Cannons, no matter the outcome of their other three games.
If Maryland beats Philadelphia, New York and California but drops a game to Boston, its odds of making the postseason would sit at 91.17%. But if the Whipsnakes lose to the Cannons and the Redwoods, Atlas or Waterdogs, their odds plummet.
- 32.72% odds to make the postseason with losses to Boston and California
- 25.93% odds to make the postseason with losses to Boston and New York
- 23.12% odds to make the postseason with losses to Boston and Philadelphia
Long story short, no matter what happens, to give itself the best shot at making a run back to the title game, Maryland must beat Boston in the final game of the season.
While the Whipsnakes running the table and finishing the season at 6-4 is not unrealistic, they would still likely see postseason action with a 5-5 finish, regardless of who they drop their game to. However, if Maryland loses two of its final four games and finishes the season with a 4-6 record, then the games it wins and loses will carry very different weights.
The best-case scenario for finishing at 4-6 is with wins over the Waterdogs and Cannons and losses to the Atlas and Redwoods, which would earn Maryland two wins in conference and put its postseason odds at 63.06%.
“We’re still in this thing. It’s definitely not over. This next week and the week after are huge for us, having to go back into conference play,” Whipsnakes captain Jake Bernhardt said. “There is really no secret. We just have to get back to doing what we do, and make sure that we are ready to go.”
