The Weekend Preview: Second half starts in Fairfield
By Josh Schafer | Jul 23, 2022
The All-Star Game is behind us. So, it’s time to start talking about playoff scenarios. Through five games, Atlas, Chrome and Whipsnakes all sit atop the league at 4-1. All of them, and the 3-2 Archers, have a 99% chance of making the playoffs according to advanced PLL metrics.
Chrome, after losing numerous big name veterans, looks poised to clinch a playoff berth and qualify for the Championship Series in winter 2023. Whipsnakes will be back once again. Archers and Atlas will be looking to prove their hot offenses aren’t just a regular season sideshow.
But the most intriguing scenarios will happen at the bottom of the league where things could be dicey. The top seven teams qualify for the playoffs, with the top four also qualifying for the new Championship Series. Here’s how the playoff qualifications break out:
- No. 1 seed = bye
- Top four seeds = 2023 Championship Series
- No. 2 seed through No. 7 seed = Quarterfinals in Boston on Sep. 3
- No.8 seed = No postseason
Cannons, Chaos and Redwoods enter the back half of the season at 1-4. Based on tiebreakers and strength of schedule, each stands a slightly different chance at the playoffs. Cannons lead the bottom dweller pack with a 78.24% chance at making the playoffs while Redwoods sit as last the likely last time out with a 57.2% at making the playoffs.
Redwoods have a tough step out of the hole with Atlas this week. But after that, they play Chaos then Chrome in what will be playoff deciding matchups.
But before we get there, there are games in Fairfield with goals to be scored and fantasy games to win. Let’s break it down.
Redwoods LC vs. Atlas LC
Saturday, July 23rd at 5:00 p.m. ET | ESPN2 and ESPN+
All-time series: Atlas leads, 3-2
Stat to know: 7
Atlas leads all PLL teams at the All-Star break with seven two-point goals. The Bulls have two more than the next closest teams (Whipsnakes and Waterdogs). After leading the league last season in two-point scores, Atlas has proven the two-point goal can propel an offense into a comeback at any time.
Player Royale to consider: Jeff Teat, A, Atlas LC
After two weeks away from PLL games, I’m taking one of the best players in the world to play like it. Redwoods defense has been serviceable this year, but when these two teams squared off in Week one Teat dominated. He totaled seven points in that game and scored 30+ fantasy points. Oh, and he can do this.
Why Atlas: Atlas has been dominant at the faceoff stripe. Trevor Baptiste leads the league in the category and has grabbed 80 more groundballs than Redwoods’ TD Ierlan. But Baptiste won’t be playing this week. This game relies on how efficient Atlas offense can be without Baptiste and a big game from Jack Concannon.
Why the Redwoods: It’s been a long time since Week 1 and the ‘Woods have improved since. Oftentimes seeing teams a second time can help a defense come up with a better plan than the first loss. Ierlan needs to dominate the stripe against a handicapped Atlas team to even the playing field. If the Woods can find a way to shut Teat out of the game and not allow him to facilitate offense, they have a chance at bouncing back and starting the path toward a playoff comeback.
The pick: While the ‘Woods upset would be an exciting way to start the second half of the season, it’s hard to pick against the glaring advantages Atlas has presented in the past.
Whipsnakes LC vs. Chaos LC
Saturday, July 23rd at 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+
All-time series: Whipsnakes lead, 6-2
Stat to know: 23.1%
Chaos entered the All-Star break last in two-man game shooting percentage. For a team built around box players, that’s not good enough to win games. If Chaos is to turn the page in the second half of the season, it’s reasonable to expect that percentage to increase significantly. This could be the right week for it, too. Allowing goals on 41.4% of two-man game opportunities, the Whipsnakes defense is one of the worst two-man game defenses in the league.
Player Royale to consider: Joe Nardella, FO, Whipsnakes LC
I loved this pick in Week 1 and it served me well but perhaps not as well as I initially thought. Still, it’s likely the best value on the board this week. Assuming you don’t want to go tier one at the stripe with Baptiste, Nardella performed well against Chaos in Week 1 (12-19, 6 GB) and the Chaos remain a good matchup for the PLL’s second-ranked faceoff specialist.
Why Chaos: We’re entering the point of the season where the motivation factor could be a real reason to bet on Chaos. Chaos head coach Andy Towers is a clear catalyst for his team. Last year, with their backs against the wall, Chaos ripped off five wins in six games. The team found its offense in a practice at the Albany games and ran off to a championship. While there isn’t some magic switch to flip for Chaos, there is something to be said for their players getting some rest over the All-Star break and contributing to a Chaos team that only lost by one goal to the Whipsnakes in Week 1.
Why the Whipsnakes: As previously noted, the Whips have the advantage at the stripe and any game where possessions could heavily favor one side is always something to consider. Additionally, Chaos wasn’t the only team shorthanded in Week 1. Though Jack Rowlett had success against Zed Williams in last year’s championship, adding Williams back into the mix this weekend (he was unavailable Week 1) will undoubtedly add pressure to the Chaos defense. If the thinking is this will be a close game, it’s always hard to side against the Whips in a one-goal game.
The pick: I didn’t think Chaos' performance was a fluke. I still don’t. But until the 2022 team shows otherwise, it’s just wishful thinking to pick them against the Whipsnakes.
Cannons LC vs. Archers LC
Sunday, July 24th at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN2 and ESPN+
All-time series: Tied, 1-1
Stat to know: 20
I watched Cannons vs. Archers live on Long Island. My lasting image is a Will Manny quick-release goal from the wing. The ball came in and out of his stick about as fast as humanly possible. He joked after that there’s nothing new with the release this year, he’s just been hitting his stride. But perhaps that speaks to the larger point from the game even more. The Archers didn’t do anything special. The Cannons committed self-inflicting wounds and the Archers looked like an offense that couldn’t be stopped.
Player Royale to consider: Tom Schreiber, M, Archers LC
If the above paragraph wasn’t obvious enough, I love the Archers offense this week largely based off their performance against the Cannons earlier this year. I’d take Will Manny too if I hadn’t already slotted in Jeff Teat. If a team scores 20 goals in a game, it’s hard not to go back to that same well when the rematch happens.
Why the Cannons: Teams can always be different in a rematch, particularly when there were so many mistakes. Cannons left Long Island feeling like they spent too much time in the penalty box (four Archers powerplay goals) and played sloppy (21 turnovers) despite a solid showing at the stripe (66%). If the Cannons repeat that performance at the faceoff stripe and clean up some simple mistakes, it’s a much closer game. Still, the defense needs some tightening that hasn’t come since and remains unclear if it will ever come.
Why the Archers: Archers dominated this matchup offensively a few weeks ago and usually win when their offense is clicking at that pace. With the potential return of Grant Ament still looming, Archers offense will likely be firing on all cylinders again this Sunday. As long as the defense continues to force turnovers, the Cannons likely can’t score at pace with Archers.
The pick: It’s Archers until Cannons show they can stop that potent of an offense.
Chrome LC vs. Waterdogs LC
Sunday, July 24th at 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2 and ESPN+
All-time series: Waterdogs lead, 2-1
Stat to know: 31%
By the narrow margin of .08%, the Waterdogs own the title for most efficient settled offense halfway through the PLL season. Perhaps, a surprising stat given the Waterdogs 2-3 record entering the break, the offensive efficiency highlights the potential for the ‘Dogs if they find a solution at the stripe. That could be the consistent return of Jake Withers or someone else, but if the Waterdogs start equaling possession time with their opponents, watch out.
Player Royale to consider: JT Giles-Harris, D, Chrome LC
This is a value play for me. While the Waterdogs offensive prowess has been highlighted, they still don’t have a lot of one-on-one scorers that would individually light up Harris. A playmaker in the open-field, Giles-Harris has flashed at times in fantasy and I’m counting on him to be a difference maker in what’s likely to be a close game.
Why Chrome: Chrome’s case starts at the stripe where Connor Farrell has been significantly better than anyone the Waterdogs have rolled out. Farrell’s dominance helped turnaround the game for Chrome on Long Island a few weeks ago. The Waterdogs also struggled with the Chrome’s young offense in that game as Brendan Nichtern lit up the Waterdogs for four goals and two assists.
Why the Waterdogs: The Waterdogs started turning their season around on Long Island against Chrome but just couldn't finish. Since then, the Dogs have won two straight and look like they might be coming into form at the right time just as they did last year. With a little more consistent defense this time around, specifically in transition, the Waterdogs can outplay Chrome for a full 48 minutes.
The pick: I like the Waterdogs as a second half team again this year. They flip the script here and come away from this one with a win.
