California has been the league’s most unpredictable team, but its explosive offense gives it a real shot. Maryland has the best defense in the playoffs, but it needs to ascend offensively. Carolina’s stars can carry the Chaos (and they’ll need them to). Philadelphia has the firepower to win a shootout, but only if it starts the right goalie.
One pressing thought on each team playing this weekend in the quarterfinals:
California Redwoods: Ride the lightning
It’s been a season of runs for the Redwoods.
After winning its first two games, California went on a five-game losing streak before winning its last three heading into the postseason.
The Woods are volatile, but that might be their greatest asset in the playoffs.
It’s no secret Denver and New York are the top two championship contenders. They both have dynamic offenses with a multitude of options to turn to. But the offense that’s right behind them statistically?
California.
Led by rookie Chris Kavanagh’s 37 points, this offense can heat up in a blink of an eye. And to make a run at a championship, you need some combustibility.
When midfielder Andrew McAdorey is drawing slides from up top and Dylan Molloy and Ryder Garnsey are finishing their opportunities off the dodge, this offense has shown flashes of being one of the best in the league.
The difference between the offense being good and great? Its shooting percentage.
California has no problem generating shots. It ranks second in the league with 44.5 shots per game. But in the last two games, the Redwoods have shot a combined 36%, compared to 21.6% during their five-game losing streak.
The Woods will get their shots off. But will they be able to can them against Blaze Riorden?
Maryland Whipsnakes: Can Pannell be vintage Pannell again?
The Whipsnakes’ floor is as high as any in the playoffs.
They have the best defense in the league, allowing just 10.8 scores per game. Rookie goalie Emmet Carroll has been saving the ball at a 56.1% clip and looks like the future in net for Maryland.
At the other specialist position, Joe Nardella was leading the league in faceoff percentage until the last regular-season game, while wings Adam Poitras and Colin Squires have been ground ball machines and are in the top five in that category among non-faceoff men.
But how high is the Whipsnakes’ ceiling? I think a lot of it depends on the play of Rob Pannell.
Pannell serves as a valuable connector to the offense at X with his feeding ability, but in order to really help this Whipsnakes offense, he needs to be able to create his own shot off the dodge.
It’s what we saw against the Cannons to end the regular season. Pannell had four points (2G, 2A), but the way he scored was most notable: his patented question mark move and then a one-handed wrap-around goal.
If he can replicate the performance he had against Boston, this Maryland team will feed off his energy.
Carolina Chaos: Get to 11 scores
The Chaos are averaging 11 scores per game, and when they’ve hit that number, they are 5-1 on the season.
Riorden is going to play well in net; his career playoff save percentage is 60.1%. How does his team hit 11 scores? Through its star rookie duo of Jackson Eicher and Owen Hiltz.
Hiltz has gotten a lot of buzz for Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so. I called him Jeff Teat lite before the draft with his IQ and shooting ability from the lefty wing, but that almost sounds like an insult now with how good Hiltz has been. But Eicher is leading the team in points, and his stretch shooting ability on the righty wing has been the perfect complement to Hiltz.
But the biggest X-factor on offense? The return of Shane Knobloch.
Knobloch looked like a star midfielder in Carolina’s last regular-season game against Utah, tallying a hat trick with each goal being more impressive than the last.
So while Hiltz and Eicher are the heartbeat of the offense, another weapon like Knobloch, who can break down any matchup, is crucial to them hitting this number.
Philadelphia Waterdogs: Matt DeLuca needs to start in net
I’m shocked the Waterdogs not only started Dillon Ward in their last regular-season game against the Atlas, but kept him in for the duration of the game.
Ward was getting shelled against New York, and while its offense is obviously very talented, Ward only had 10 saves for a 36% save percentage.
DeLuca hasn’t just been the better goalie in terms of the eye test; the stats back it up, too. DeLuca is saving the ball at a 54.2% clip on the season compared to Ward’s 44.1%.
With the Waterdogs offense looking like they’re putting it all together in terms of contributions from their attack and midfield, they need to make some saves in order to win a shootout. I think Philadelphia would have won its last game against New York if DeLuca was in net.
