…but that doesn’t explain all of it.

Two theories: Either the Waterdogs missed an elite playmaker or their shooting percentage was way lower than expected and is bound for some serious regression.

My lukewarm answer: Both theories are true to a degree. Although much of the Waterdogs’ offensive identity was the absence of an alpha, establishing a dodging hierarchy helps in close games (see: Matt Rambo in the 2019 Championship). Reeves never asserted himself in that role. McArdle and Cuccinello split dodging duties and had the offense humming without overcarrying.

There will be primary playmakers available in the draft. Copelan could have his choice of Michael Sowers (Duke) or Jeff Teat (Cornell). He’s guaranteed a shot at one, depending on the Atlas’ decision at #1.

Teat would fit wonderfully. He can dominate the ball when needed, but also takes a backseat when defenses try to shut him off. Sowers is an explosive, pass-first presence at X. Containing him in a big-little without switching is impossible. Princeton produced short-stick matchups on command, and Sowers roasted them. The Waterdogs could create tasty mismatches for Sowers after trapping opposing offensive midfielders on defense.

Regarding the second theory, there’s a chance that the Waterdogs’ low assisted shooting percentage is akin to baseball’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play). A consistently high or low BABIP is unsustainable. Pitchers with a high BABIP during one season generally improve the following year. It’s easier to conceive that this team – one that consistently creates quality, assisted looks – will break out of its shooting slump than it would be for a team that struggles to create catch-and-shoot looks altogether.

Opposing goalies saved 60.7% of the Waterdogs’ assisted shots. Is that sustainable?