The Philadelphia Waterdogs (1-6) and California Redwoods (2-5) occupy last place in their respective conferences. Neither team controls its own destiny now, meaning some things will have to go their way in order to crack the top six. 

The top two seeds in each conference receive a first-round bye, but the other four postseason teams are decided by overall record. So, the Dogs will need to eclipse at least two teams in the standings over the next three weeks, while the Woods need to jump at least one spot. 

Here’s what needs to happen for the Redwoods and Waterdogs, respectively, to make the playoffs:

Redwoods

The Redwoods don’t fully control their destiny, but they have a lot of say, making their path to the playoffs either completely straightforward or a complicated web of scenarios.

The cleanest way for the Redwoods to make the playoffs is to win their remaining three games. 

In that scenario, the Woods would book a spot in the quarterfinals at Gillette Stadium on Sept. 2 if the Denver Outlaws lose at least two of their matchups against the Maryland Whipsnakes, Carolina Chaos, and Utah Archers (with the caveat that the Woods win this weekend). Alternatively, Maryland or Carolina must lose two of their final three games. 

If one of those teams pulls its weight, the Woods would finish at 5-5, one of those teams would finish at 4-6, and the Woods would leapfrog into sixth place, securing a spot in the playoffs.

If the Woods were to lose one of their final games, say against the conference-leading and defending champion Archers on the front end of Utah’s Homecoming weekend, things would get shaky, but it’s still feasible. 

In this scenario, the Woods finish at 4-6, increasing the likelihood that they’ll finish in a tie with either Denver, Maryland or Carolina. This doesn’t bode well for the Woods, who have the worst scoring differential—the first tiebreaker—in the league at -19, which is seven points worse than the next closest team. 

To avoid a tiebreaker, Maryland, Denver or Carolina would be evoking a special kind of pain in their fanbases because they’d need to lose all of their remaining games. Given that the Outlaws play the Woods, Whipsnakes and Chaos to close out the season, they’d essentially dictate which team provides that heartbreak.

The least likely outcome for the Redwoods making the playoffs is that they lose two of their remaining games. This really only works if they beat Denver this week and the Outlaws lose all their remaining games, triggering an end-of-season tie at 3-7, so the tiebreaker becomes a factor. 

Denver currently has a -12 scoring differential. The Woods would have to beat Denver by a considerable margin this weekend and then essentially only lose by one goal in their final two matchups, giving them a chance to surpass the Outlaws' scoring differential.

On the periphery, in this scenario, the Waterdogs’ only win in the final three weeks of the season could be against the Woods. If they win any other games, they’d finish with a 3-7 (or better) record, with a much better scoring differential, supplanting the Woods for the potential sixth seed.

Waterdogs

If the Waterdogs lose one more game, their playoff chances take a nosedive. It’s that simple. In fact, they can be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this weekend. If Philly loses to the Whipsnakes this weekend, the Outlaws beat the Redwoods and the Chaos beat the Archers, the Waterdogs are out of playoff contention. 

If Carolina and/or Denver loses, then the Dogs would still be in the running with a loss. Philly would have to beat the Redwoods next week in Colorado along with the Atlas in the season’s final game. All the while, Denver can only win one of its last four games, or Carolina can only win one of its final three.

The good news is the Dogs have two of those teams beat in terms of score differential: Waterdogs have a -6, while Denver has -12 and Cali has -19. They are unlikely to catch Carolina or Maryland, who both sit at 3-4 with a -4 score differential, but Denver and California are within reach. 

Now, if the Waterdogs win in Baltimore, that changes everything. They would be within striking distance of four teams: Maryland, California, Carolina and Denver. That leaves a myriad of possibilities open to the Dogs, but any way you slice it, they can’t control what happens. Their best chance will be to win the last three games and hope that at least two of those teams lose the majority of their remaining matchups. 

Even if Philly wins out, there’s a decent chance they miss the playoffs. Here’s the bottom line: This weekend’s game against the Whipsnakes will determine whether the Waterdogs’ path to the playoffs is feasible, or even possible.