When the Carolina Chaos and Denver Outlaws line up for the opening draw at Peter Barton Stadium in Denver on Friday, it will be 56 days after their first meeting in early June, which was a 12-9 Chaos win.
Blaze Riorden had a 25-save masterclass that led to Carolina’s victory, and the Chaos defense matched up well against Denver’s four Tewaaraton Award winners (Brennan O’Neill, Pat Kavanagh, Jared Bernhardt and Logan Wisnauskas).
However, a few things have changed from that first matchup.
Outlaws head coach and general manager Tim Soudan swapped Logan McNaney into the cage for Owen McElroy, who started against Carolina in Charlotte. Soudan also signed screen-setting maestro and ultimate team player Jonathan Donville, and he’s immediately elevated O’Neill’s game (10 points in his last two games).
But the biggest change is how poorly the Chaos’ transition defense is playing leading into this game. It’s an area where Denver can capitalize on offense.
Carolina is allowing the most transition goals per game (2.5) and transition scores per game (3). The Outlaws’ transition offense is superb; Denver is tied for first in transition goals (2.25 per game) and scores (2.63).
Before the All-Star break, the Chaos gave up transition goals but didn’t allow a two-pointer in transition. Since the break, the Chaos have surrendered five transition two-pointers and are declining in that aspect of the game.
Against the Utah Archers two weeks ago, the Chaos allowed Mason Woodward to score two two-pointers, and Beau Pederson added a goal in transition. The Archers won 12-11. If Carolina had eliminated the mishaps in transition defense, it would’ve likely won the game, rather than starting it down 8-0 in the first 15 minutes.
Against the Waterdogs last Saturday, Carolina was leading 13-9 with less than five minutes remaining and looked to have absolute control. Then it allowed back-to-back twos that evened the score at 13, which ultimately led to a nailbiter in overtime that the Chaos were fortunate to win. The Chaos also allowed three goals to Philadelphia’s short-stick defensive midfielders.
Part of the issue in transition this season is Carolina’s offensive game plan.
Depending on the handedness of the box side, either Owen Hiltz (lefties box side) or Jackson Eicher (righties box side) is playing midfield. Both rookies are traditional attackmen and have had to adjust to rushing off the field to change for defensive personnel.
Carolina also has multiple young guys on the offense that are still adjusting to the faster transition game, and they have young personnel on the defensive side.
The Chaos have two rookie SSDMs (Ray Dearth and Greg Langermeier) and long-stick midfielders (Levi Verch and Scott Smith). All of the youth in transition has led to communication mishaps, resulting in some of the two-pointers allowed.
The Outlaws have three transition two-pointers and eight transition goals since the All-Star break.
In the first matchup, the Chaos defense only gave up one transition goal, which was scored by Kavanagh and assisted by Jake Piseno.
Piseno, who is electric on the fast break with Zach Geddes and Ryan Terefenko, can launch the ball from range and has two two-pointers on the season. But he also has super soft mitts and can score inside (2G) or feed his teammates on the wings (3A). Terefenko skirts up and down the field like prime John Wall on the hardwood, and Geddes – arguably the fastest player in the league – can go from arc to arc in the blink of an eye.
If any of those three pick up a ground ball and have room to run, they will dart down the field and create offense before Carolina can change personnel.
If the Chaos don’t clean up their transition defense ahead of this contest, things might get out of hand quickly in Denver, and the Outlaws could run away with the game in front of their home crowd, which would also clinch them the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
