Time for an annual tradition: 10 Predictions.

Last year was … okay. I correctly predicted Atlas LC leading the tournament in 2-point goals, league-wide 1-point shooting percentage topping 36%, and teams using both goalies.

I was wrong about Logan Wisnauskas leading in goals (he finished four behind Romar Dennis), Jack Concannon leading in save percentage (he was second among starters), Marcus Holman winning MVP, and Archers LC winning it all.

And I was very wrong about 2-point shooting percentage being less than 18% (it was 31.7%), Whipsnakes allowing the lowest GAA (they allowed the highest), and Jay Carlson scooping 5+ GBs per game (the ball was barely on the ground; nobody had more than 3 per game).

We’ve seen this format now. We have a better idea of what to expect. I need to be better than 3/10 – but also want to take some swings. So, here are my 10 predictions for the 2024 Championship Series:

1. Teams will attempt 15+ 2-pointers per game

The 13-yard 2-point arc was a gamechanger in 2023. And it was underutilized.

Remember Opening Night? We had barely seen sixes played at this level – nevermind sixes with a 2-point arc. That first game between Atlas LC and Whipsnakes LC was a whirlwind. It was lacrosse on Fast Twitch. Atlas shot 7-for-12 (58.3%) from beyond the arc. And we all knew that was only the tip of the 2-point iceberg. Twenty-four hours later, Atlas doubled their volume from deep, shooting 11-for-25 (44.0%).

Atlas wasn’t the only team to increase their 2-point output. Across the league there were 8.8 attempts per team from deep on Opening Night; by the time Sean Sconone and Chrome LC were soaked in Andre champagne, that number had jumped to 11.4.

Then-interim head coach Steven Brooks set a goal for 2-point attempts per game. Their floor was around 15 attempts per game.

Atlas was an anomaly in ‘23. But my guess is their strategy will be the rule in ‘24.

It has to be. The shots are too valuable to pass up. League-wide shooting percentage was 31.7% from 2-point range and 46.1% from 1-point range. The expected value of a 2-point shot (0.63 points) is 1.38x higher (!!!) than the expected value of a 1-point shot (0.46).

Trading ones for twos is a losing strategy in a game with alternating possessions. Sure, it worked for Chrome LC – barely. It took Atlas’s worst 2-point shooting performance of the week (27.8%) for Chrome to eek out a 1-point win.

We know 2-point attempts will increase. But by how much? Fifteen per team per game (~33.3% of all shots) feels like a fair guess.

2. 1-point shooting percentage will eclipse 50%

If 2-point volume increases, then 1-point volume will decrease … and I think teams will only “settle” for 1-pointers when there’s a mismatch.

Think of the X attackmen playing: Rob Pannell (California Redwoods), Asher Nolting (Boston Cannons), Michael Sowers (Philadelphia Waterdogs), Kieran McArdle (Philadelphia), Jules Heningburg (California), Ryan Drenner (Boston), Matt Kavanagh (Boston).

Last year’s tournament was full of versatile personnel to a fault. Versatility isn’t overrated – but it’s an overused term. There is only one Zach Currier. Most other two-way players are jacks of all trades and masters of none.

Coaches were more concerned with dressing players who wouldn’t hurt them on defense. The few offensive stars there dominated. Grant Ament shot 68.8% from inside the arc last year!

Pannell, Nolting, Sowers, McArdle, Heningburg, Drenner, and Kavanagh are all matchup nightmares on an island.

3. Scoring will increase YoY

This prediction is a function of Prediction #1, Prediction #2, and Chrome LC not returning to the tournament.

Chrome’s gameplan was to beat the crap out of teams. Most teams approached sixes as if it were basketball; Chrome played like it was hockey. As Billy Football pointed out, the 2023 Chrome roster had the most mass. Their defensive efficiency (opponents only scored on 35.0% of possessions) was head and shoulders above the rest of the league (41.4%).

These four rosters have less mass and more playmaking. The coaches have real film to study. Some of these coaches even have real experience coaching sixes. We’re starting to learn what constitutes a quality shot in sixes. Expect subbing patterns and offensive schemes to evolve in a way that leads to more points.

4. Asher Nolting will lead the tournament in assists

… or else he’ll shoot 75%.

If Nolting is dodging at X with Holman, Drenner, Matt Campbell, and Chris Aslanian perched atop the arc – who do you help from?

Maybe defenses decide that the 1-pointer by Nolting is worth less than the stepdown from that firing squad, so they don’t slide at all. We’ll see. It’ll be fun to watch how willing defenses are to slide to X in general. Some of the most aggressive defenses in ‘23 sent slides to alley dodges – and leaked the original on-ball defender upfield for outlets. (More on that in a minute.)

But sliding to X?! That leaves you vulnerable above the arc and slows down your collective first step in transition. Goalies might prefer a contested close-range shot over another bruising time-and-room try.

If teams send help, then Nolting will carve them up as a passer like he’s done his entire career. And if they don’t? He’ll bully his way to layups and dunks like this.